Opinion:
With a mobilisable troop count of 1.5 million that plays Pakistan’s 0.7 million, India is, presently, perceived on the global stage as the superior military power in India-Pakistan conflict. This assumes that their comparable nuclear warhead count of 170 vs 172 will remain un-used and therefore cancels each other out, from a rhetoric and deterrent point of view.
However, I am of the opinion that we should expand that assessment conversation to include 2 other keys. The framework to think that through should include 3 keys. They are: a) Out-gun, b) Out-thumb and c) Out-tongue. I am of the view that whoever holds 2 out of 3 keys would emerge from this conflict more positively in the eyes of the world and therefore, retain their support relative to the other party.
- Out-gun: It is perhaps not controversial to hypothesise that if (/when) there is a military conflict between the two nations, India will eventually emerge victorious and/or draw concessions out of Pakistan. The asymmetry is both real and held as a belief globally and typically, would serve as an escalation deterrent on both sides. Equally, to a low-information global netizen the asymmetry might land as a “David vs Goliath” scenario; and, over a period of time, support for the ‘underdog’ or ‘little guy’ grows. Naturally, this assumes that the conflict does not become nuclear – if it does, the world will not survive to find out who wins, given the warhead stockpile count in question.
Let’s give this key to India. India 1 – 0 Pakistan.
I don’t see this key’s value changing unless Pakistan gains strong allies. - Out-thumb: It is said that a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes. There are several instances of social media being used, dare I say, very effectively to spread images/information that positions India in, undeservedly, negative light. The attempts to counter the ‘fake news’ is often slower and ineffective to dislodge the ‘feeling’ that has begun taking root within the global netizen. For instance, the information/images about children being murdered or religious genocide is both unsurprising and easier to believe given the world has been desensitised by other recent conflicts around the world. Given the perception of Pakistan as Goliath in social media narrative and insufficient social media efforts to counter and balance the narrative, this key is going away from India. This key also risks the first key as other nations might change their stance from neutral to supporting the ‘David’ based on what they’re learning from information accessible to them.
For the moment, let’s give this key to Pakistan. India 1 – 1 Pakistan - Out-tongue: Representatives of Pakistan are making the rounds in international news network already and setting the narrative early. It is obvious to an informed Indian citizen that the news anchors or hosts have not been following the conflict (I am not knocking anchors for this, in fairness – they have been drinking from a firehose in the last few years – news wise) and therefore, their rebuttals and follow-up questions are lacking nuance and substantive elements. Curiosity is expensive and to be fair, the circumstances have legacy and is complicated. In addition, Pakistani representatives are presenting themselves in pressed suits, speaking politely, dispassionately, and calmly. You will hear them using rhetoric like “let’s be civil in debate” etc in stark contrast to Indian representatives who talk emotionally, passionately, and aggressively about slapping Pakistan across the face. This results in a perception that India (and Indians) are the aggressors even if the reality is otherwise. To a low-information netizen, India appears angry and Pakistan appears reasonable on TV. The truth of the matter is overshadowed by this perception. I am making a gross generalisation here – People decide whether they like you before they decide whether they like your message.
For the moment, let’s give this key to Pakistan. India 1 – 2 Pakistan
My view is that the longer this conflict continues, the world will become more engaged and this presents ominous signs for India (and Indians, both domestic and overseas) given the asymmetry in how India is using social media and in-person media appearances.
Calls to action to strengthen the keys:
1) Use social media. Actively dispel misinformation and disinformation. In addition, propagate the truth (i.e: don’t just defend misinformation).
2)Use traditional media thoughtfully. Present yourself dispassionately. Do not assume viewers know the ins and outs of the history. Present rhetoric in easy to follow messages.
3)Avoid in-fighting. I get we are politically polarised domestically. But, this calls for national unity. Let’s make sure we have a safer world and that we can co-exist with Pakistan at the back-end of this conflict.
Jai Hind.
About Ravi Jay
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Its always good to see a view from outside the country. Issue is that those views wont change when slumdog millionaire is taken as a documentary among those regions.
Perceptions are like scissors , you cut the narrative only to suit ones own narratives.
The British for example never could believe india could stand together as a nation with multitudes of religion and languages… that is why in their eyes, pakistan formation was a wonderful choice.
Why this long intro…? Simply said, you cant satisfy the worlds view whose lust is to see things otherwise. Try to make them understand, sure.
But then do what you got to do.
bangladeshi here is watching we don’t like war hope it ends soon
We have out gunned, out thumbed and out tounged Pakistan several times . Even before the advent of latest social media. In 1947 first Kashmir war ( credits to Sardar patel), 1964 ( credits to Lal Bahudur shastri ), 1971 Bangadesh liberation war ( credits to Indira Gandhi), 1999 Kargil war ( credits Vajpayee). All at the cost of blood of our Forces.
Yet, why doest pakistan ever felt out thumbed or out tounged by India? could have been a reasonable first thought. The answer is the leadership and Army over theee have been busy out thumbing and out tounging their own citizens. They never evolved into a credible democracy, military dictatorship ruled over them directly 1958- 71, 1977- 88, 1999-08. Indirectly held puppet govts to show to the world. Military ran corruption and geo political agendas. Military generals and their families lived like feudals.
What the world often heard were the opinions/propagandas of Pakistani journalists placed across the finest news rooms in the world. Even today we hear them via New York Times , Washington post and the Wire. The common mans voice from Lahore or Rawalpindi or Peshwar never never reflected in it. From a diplomatic perspective the edge they got from countries like US were tokens of gratitude from masters to slaves . How the pak army outhumbed its own ppl and will be a study material.
Times have changed. Pakistan failed to realise it. The sheep that has lost and doesn’t cry out loud may not find its good shepherd , same has happened with pakistani society. India evolved into the change, with social media the common citizens feelings and emotions are heard louder than ever. From a social perspective it may seem out tonguing, but democracy by itself is in constant search for the strongest opinion across the society. We may evolve to perceive it that way sooner or later. For a country like India, It’s the voice of its own diverse culture, It can look very chaotic with so many perspectives . It is the new platform for its ‘ Sur ki Nadiya, Har jaga se ‘ (rivers of voice that echoes from all direction and splashes into the great ocean). No democratic leader can ignore it or supress it. The spirit of a nation cannot be blown out by blatant lies. Through every dark night , a brighter day awaits the victorious on the other side , truth shall triumph and we shall prevail. Jai Hind!
India’s ambitions to become a Great Power face a brutal reality: China won’t allow it.
As China become a leader in military technology, India’s security environment will worsen as unfriendly neighbors such as Pakistan become increasingly well armed.
In India’s case, it faces a future of being vastly outmatched militarily by CN/CN proxies. Having a 1 generation gap in military technology now means very lopsided exchange ratios like 0:5 or 0:10.
If China decides they want to bog India down in a multi-year war of attrition with Pakistan, this can get very expensive for India. India cannot unilaterally end the war now, it is at the mercy of China.
This is the problem with starting wars in general. It is very easy to start a war and very hard to end one.
India does not have the option of developing at its own pace. It is not an island in the middle of the ocean.
An increasingly well armed Pakistan will make it impossible for India to develop at its own pace and in peace.
If the Lhasa-Kathmandu railway gets built, Nepal could also become well armed with Chinese weapons. Most population centers of Northern India, including New Delhi are well within rocket artillery range from Nepal.
This would render most of Northern India effectively uninvestable.
India is trying to position itself as a counter to China to Western countries that wants to contain China. China’s counter to this is to arm Pakistan and opportunistically humiliate India. If India can’t even beat Pakistan, it is not a credible counter to China.
India’s diplomatic power is built on top of the perception that it is a major power due to its population. A public demonstration of military incapacity relative to Pakistan will do serious damage to this perception.
I swear, there’s one of these posts for every single conflict around the world nowadays.
Is China the biggest winner of an Ukraine-Russia conflict?
Is China the biggest winner of an Israel-Iran conflict?
Is China the biggest winner of an India-Pakistan conflict?
Staying out of conflicts and doing business with everyone is apparently an unheard of strategy to these authors.
Mehndhi laga ka rakhana chori chara ka rakhana